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Cycling Power & Speed Estimator

Estimate the watts needed to hold a speed on any grade — or the speed a power output gives — with the standard cycling physics model and a full power breakdown.

Steady-state estimate for still conditions; ignores acceleration, drafting and surface variation.

About this tool

The Cycling Power & Speed Estimator uses the steady-state physics model (Martin et al. 1998 / Kreuzotter) to relate speed, grade and power. It computes the power at the wheel as P = v × (Crr·m·g·cosθ + m·g·sinθ + ½·ρ·CdA·(v+wind)²), where θ = atan(grade), then divides by a drivetrain efficiency of 0.976 to get the power you put through the pedals. Everything is computed locally in your browser.

The three resistances are reported separately so you can see where the watts go: rolling resistance (tyre on road), gravity (climbing or descending), and aerodynamic drag, which dominates at speed. Defaults are g = 9.8067 m/s², Crr = 0.005 for a road tyre on asphalt, and air density ρ = 1.225 kg/m³, adjusted for altitude and temperature via ρ = 1.225 × 273/(273+T) × e^(−altitude/8000). CdA is chosen by riding position — tops ≈ 0.40, hoods ≈ 0.32, drops ≈ 0.30, aero bars ≈ 0.27 m² — or entered directly.

In power-from-speed mode you enter a target speed and read the required watts; in speed-from-power mode the tool solves the cubic relationship numerically by bisection to find the speed a given power produces. Mass is rider plus bike. Results are estimates for still, steady conditions and ignore acceleration, drafting and road surface variation.

Frequently asked questions

Which power model is used?
The standard steady-state model: power at the wheel equals speed times the sum of rolling resistance (Crr·m·g·cosθ), gravity (m·g·sinθ) and aerodynamic drag (½·ρ·CdA·(v+wind)²). Pedal power is that divided by a 0.976 drivetrain efficiency.
What CdA should I pick?
CdA is your frontal area times drag coefficient. Typical road values are about 0.40 m² on the tops, 0.32 on the hoods, 0.30 in the drops and 0.27 on aero bars. Choose the position that matches your ride, or enter a measured CdA.
How does altitude and temperature change the result?
They change air density: ρ = 1.225 × 273/(273+T°C) × e^(−altitude/8000). Thinner air at altitude or higher temperature lowers drag, so you go faster for the same power — noticeable on fast, flat efforts.
How is speed found from power?
The equation is cubic in speed, so the tool solves it numerically by bisecting on speed between 0 and 30 m/s until the modelled power matches your input. It assumes still, steady-state riding with no drafting or acceleration.

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